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What does statistically significant mean?

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Journal of Behavioral Science · Vol. 41

The difference between the two groups was statistically significant at the 5% level.

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Overview

Statistical significance means a result was unlikely to arise by chance alone, judged against a cutoff agreed in advance. It is a screening test rather than a verdict: the pattern is probably not luck, and nothing more than that has been established. Plenty of significant findings are far too small to matter.
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Overview

This is science checking that a finding is not just luck being loud. The bar gets set before anyone looks, usually 5%, and anything rarer than the bar earns the label. All it buys you is probably not random, which is nowhere near big, useful or worth caring about. 😎

A quick take — often all you need.

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Detail

A company tests two checkout buttons and the green one wins by 2%. The question worth asking before anyone celebrates is how often random variation alone would hand one of two identical buttons a 2% lead. Statistical significance is that question made formal: researchers pick a threshold before looking, almost always 5%, and call a result significant when luck alone would rarely produce something that big. Why fix a line in advance rather than judge each result on its merits? Because without one, everyone talks themselves into believing whatever they hoped to find, so the line works as a commitment made before the data can argue back. The protection is thinner than it looks. That 5% cutoff is a convention rather than a law of nature, which leaves results at 4.9% and 5.1% treated as opposites despite being near twins. Significance also says nothing about size, since with 50,000 users an effect nobody would ever notice clears the bar comfortably.
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Detail

Your gym app says the new routine added 3% to your lifts. Cool, except your lifts already bounce around 3% on sleep, snacks and general mood, so that number might be noise in a lab coat. The 5% bar exists to settle exactly this, set before you peek, and if luck alone fakes your result more than one time in twenty then it does not count. Why lock the bar in early? Because everyone finds a reason their favourite number was real once they have already seen it. Two things nobody mentions. First, 4.9% passes and 5.1% fails even though those are basically twins, which is silly and also just how it works. Second, run a big enough sample and a change you would never feel sails straight through anyway, and poke at twenty things at once and one of them is winning by pure accident. 😎

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Analogy

A friend claims they can tell tap water from bottled, tastes four glasses, and gets all four right. Impressive until you work out that pure guessing wins all four about 6% of the time, so somebody manages it every slow afternoon with no talent at all. Ask for twelve glasses and guessing almost never survives, which makes twelve correct worth something. Notice what the test still cannot tell you: whether your friend tastes a difference that matters at dinner.
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Analogy

Someone hits three half court shots and immediately declares themselves cracked at basketball. Three is nothing, plenty of people fluke three on a good afternoon. Make them shoot fifty and fluking that is basically impossible, so fifty makes the claim real. Decide how much luck you will forgive before the shooting starts, not after they get hot. 😎

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AI explanations may contain errors · Not professional advice

Formal definition — The same term, explained the usual way

A result is described as statistically significant when its p-value falls below a significance level (alpha) fixed before analysis, conventionally 0.05, indicating that data at least as extreme would arise with that probability or less if the null hypothesis were true. Significance concerns the compatibility of the data with chance, not the magnitude or practical importance of the effect.

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